Lingering civic unrest after the military coup devastated Myanmar and its economy, with massive losses across all economic indicators, including Thailand’s exports to its ailing neighbor. Thailand’s exports to Myanmar this year are expected to lose between 60 and 96.5 billion baht, between 51 and 82 percent, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. The UTCC Center for International Trade Studies has published a number of findings on Myanmar’s economy and its relations with Thailand and ASEAN countries.
The study found that the coup caused significant damage to the Burmese economy, starting with a 2.5% drop in GDP this quarter, compared to 6.4% growth in the first quarter of 2020 600,000 jobs have been lost due to the decline in foreign direct investment. investment. Massive unemployment helps explain dizziness 83% drop in household income.
Foreign direct investment fell by around 187.6 billion baht, costing around 600,000 Burmese jobs. these figures are expected to fall further to between 203 and 228 billion baht, a drop of 76 to 85% depending on the continuation of military and civilian clashes. Many sectors were severely damaged, including transport, oil and gas, energy, real estate, industry and the industrial zone. The abandonment of foreign investment is expected to continue to hit Myanmar’s economy as investors reallocate to Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
The Burmese economy suffered an 18% exchange loss and with the reduction in exports from Thailand, an overall decline in exports of 0.8 to 1.3% is expected. China is expected to be hardest hit by the export loss, with ASEAN countries (especially Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam), South Korea, Japan, India and the United States registering all deficits.
Industrial and consumer exports are also dropping drastically, with rubber, petroleum, plastics, computers, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, fabrics, steel and machinery all suffering on the industrial side. Consumer products like rice, sugar, vegetable oil, shrimp, beverages, soap and cosmetics, televisions and animal feed suffer the same economic losses.
Thailand has in fact experienced a ten-year gradual decline in exports to Myanmar, but the current state of crisis and the free fall of the Burmese economy have caused a much steeper fall. From 2018 to 2019, exports fell by 8.8% and the following year they fell by 13% from 2019 to 2020. This year, the fall from a cliff of more than 50% is a drastic toll of the humanitarian crisis and the military regime destroying Myanmar.
SOURCE: Bangkok Post
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