Coffee prices will stumble after jumping 30% in 2021

IndexBox has just released a new report: “World – (Green) Coffee – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Outlook”. Here is a summary of the main findings of the report.

Coffee prices remain very volatile. In 2022, the average annual price of Arabica is expected to fall on the back of expected production growth, while the price of Robusta will rise due to growing consumer demand, preferring cheaper alternatives to more expensive counterparts.

Key trends and insights

In 2022, the coffee price for Arabica is expected to fall by around -2% yoy to $4.2 per kg, while Robusta will increase by 2% yoy to $2.0 per kg, according to the World Bank’s October forecast. Expected production growth in Brazil is expected to drive down Arabica prices. The Robusta price increase is caused by increased demand after many consumers started looking for cheap alternatives to the more expensive Arabica.

The average annual price of Arabica coffee increased 36% YoY to $4.51 per kg in 2021, while Robusta increased 31% YoY to $1.98 per kg over the same period . The average monthly price in December 2021 reached $5.91 per kg for Arabica and $2.48 per kg for Robusta.

Brazil, the world’s leading supplier of coffee with a 35% share of world exports, shipped 1.7 million tonnes of coffee abroad from January to September 2021, i.e. + 5.8% more than during of the same period of 2020. In monetary terms, Brazilian coffee exports totaled $3.95 billion, up 17% from the same period a year earlier. The average Brazilian coffee export price increased from $2.10 per kg in January to $2.77 per kg in September 2021.

World coffee exports

In 2020, world exports of coffee in its unroasted (green) form decreased slightly to 6.7 million tonnes, roughly mirroring the previous year. In terms of value, the supplies reached $16 billion (IndexBox estimates).

Brazil was the main exporting country which supplied 2.4 million tons of coffee abroad, approx. 35% of global volume. Viet Nam (1,208,000 tons) had an 18% share (on a ton basis) of total exports, ranking second, followed by Colombia (10%), Indonesia (5, 6%) and Uganda (4.9%). Ethiopia (231,000 tons), Peru (213,000 tons), Germany (211,000 tons), India (206,000 tons), Guatemala (189,000 tons), Nicaragua (149,000 tons) and Mexico (105,000 tonnes) follow far behind the leaders.

By value, Brazil ($5 billion) remains the largest supplier of green coffee in the world, accounting for 31% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Colombia (2.4 billion dollars), with a share of 15% of total shipments. It was followed by Viet Nam with a 12% share.

The biggest coffee importers

In 2020, the United States (1.3 million tons) and Germany (1.1 million tons) were the main importers of unroasted coffee across the world, blending together 37% of the total volume. Italy (565,000 tonnes) and Japan (390,000 tonnes) accounted for an additional 15% of global international purchases. Spain (287K tons), France (229K tons), Russia (198K tons), Switzerland (180K tons), Netherlands (174K tons), South Korea (157K tons), United Kingdom (156K tons), Belgium ( 146K tons) and Poland (128,000 tons) occupied relatively small shares of the total volume.

In terms of value, the largest import markets for green coffee in the world were the United States ($4.2 billion), Germany ($2.6 billion) and Italy (1. $2 billion), together accounting for 45% of global purchases. These countries were followed by Japan, Switzerland, France, Spain, the Netherlands, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Russia, Belgium and Poland, which represented together 30% extra.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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